The Week Ahead
This is a holiday-shortened week in the U.S. with the 4th of July holiday to be observed on Friday. As a result, we’ll get both the weekly initial unemployment claims numbers and the monthly jobs report at the same time on Thursday morning.
- Initial claims are forecast at +1.35 million, while the consensus forecast for nonfarm payrolls in June is for a gain of 3.5 million jobs.
- The trend in continuing unemployment claims since mid-May would seem to track with a more modest gain in nonfarm payrolls:
- Other key U.S. economic releases due out this week will cover manufacturing PMI, the minutes of the last Fed meeting, light vehicle sales, construction spending, consumer confidence, and trade.
- On the trade front, USMCA enters into force on Wednesday, replacing the NAFTA agreement. The Financial Times reports “The US president criticized the earlier agreement, which came into force in 1994, for harming US jobs; its successor includes a digital chapter, and provisions to favor sourcing from North America, to protect high-wage jobs in the car sector, and to increase US farmers’ access to the Canadian market.”
- Overseas, we’ll get updated manufacturing PMI figures for China, Germany, France, and the euro zone, along with figures on Japanese industrial production and unemployment, German retail sales, euro zone unemployment and producer price inflation.
- Please be safe and have a great week!
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