Monetary policy will remain in focus this week with the release of the minutes of the last FOMC and European Central Bank meetings, along with the Kansas City Fed’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
As the Financial Times reports, “The gathering’s theme this year is Challenges for Monetary Policy and …it is a fitting one as central banks keep cutting rates in a bid to stir activity as a mounting pile of negative-yielding debt — adding up to almost $17tn — indicates profound gloominess over the state of the world economy. A quarter-point interest rate cut is fully priced in for September, but it is not clear what it would take to push officials to restart quantitative easing.” On the U.S. economic calendar, we’ll get updates on new and existing home sales, initial unemployment claims, and the Conference Board’s leading economic indicators index. The consensus forecasts are for modest improvements in home sales and a rebound in leading indicators (+0.2%). Overseas, we’ll get new inflation numbers from Japan and Germany, as well as monthly flash PMIs for Germany, France, and the euro zone. Have a great week!